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Author:	Synonymous [ 30 May 2025, 10:14 ]
Post subject:	KSIA 2023 FBSPO Annual Review
FOREIGN-BASED SCHEDULED PASSENGER OPERATOR ANNUAL REVIEW AT KSIA FOR 2023 researched and compiled by Clinton Barnard Note: (1) I go to great expense in both time and data in trying to confirm aircraft arrivals, which is not always as easy as one might think, especially when considering airlines like Proflight Zambia and Eswatini Air, whose arrivals frequently end up labeled as 'unknown' or equivalent by flight tracking sites. Then, considerable time needs to be spent cross-checking other sites. Only if a certain specific minimum criteria of data is confirmed by me will I consider an arrival as legitimate. If there is any doubt, then there is no doubt – it is unknown by me too! (2) In the case of Eswatini Air in particular, flight confirmation was particularly problematic and I could only confirm a minimum of 78 actual arrivals for the year although the reality could be slightly higher. (3) None of the data presented here is official, but has been collected from both assorted Internet data sources and from my personal visual and daily observations of relevant sources. Due to corruption of all tables when presented on this forum, I have had no option but to delete all tables. Should anyone want the complete version including all tables, feel free to contact me on 076 0511 586 WhatsApp preferably or e-mail me on: oopsaahcast@yahoo.com. Notable highlights of the 2023 year must be the arrival of a brand new airline and the return of a popular carrier initiating its second stint of service following a lengthly layoff. All three carriers that served in 2022 saw their annual total actual arrivals increase in 2023. This, combined with the new Foreign-Based Scheduled Passenger Operator (FBSPO) arrivals, had the effect of a 35% (296 arrivals) increase in total actual arrivals over 2022. Of the five extant FBSPOs at the close of the year, three flew direct routes and two used doglegs both inbound and outbound. (table deleted: TABLE 1: SAMPLE PERIOD SHOWING WEEKLY SCHEDULED ARRIVALS FOR ALL FBSPOs AT KSIA FOR 2023) From the above sample period, which represents the busiest time of year on the flight calender, it is apparent that, as with the previous year, Tuesdays remained the quietest day of the week with one arrival, while Mondays, Thursdays, Saturdays and Sundays were equally busy and indeed, the busiest, with three arrivals apiece. Emirates flew the most (daily) and Eswatini Air the least (once weekly). (table deleted: TABLE 2: CROSS SECTION OF TOTALS OF ACTUAL WEEKLY FBSPO ARRIVALS AT KSIA DURING 2023) From the above, it is seen that 1 and 3 frequencies weekly were the most common with 0, 2 and 4 next most commonly flown. (table deleted: TABLE 3: BREAKDOWN OF FBSPO ACTUAL ARRIVALS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE FOR KSIA FOR 2023) From the above Table, the B777 was once again the most prolific type in use in 2023 with the A350 a distant second and A330 a distant third. (table deleted: TABLE 4: BREAKDOWN OF ACTUAL FBSPO ARRIVALS BY AIRLINE FOR KSIAFOR 2023) From the Table, Qatar Airways flew the greatest diversity of aircraft equipment with two main types of four variants followed by Turkish Airlines flying two main types of three variants. The fact that five FBSPOs flew a total of five main aircraft types demonstrates the high equipment diversity that has always characterised Durban FBSPO operations over the years. Note: The % Arrivals cannot be precisely determined without knowing the exact total number of Eswatini Air actual arrivals, which remains elusive. ESWATINI AIR Due to an error in presentation on www.flightradar24.com, whereby the site gave information regarding Eswatini Air incorrectly under the title of Rayani Air, this writer was unaware of the actual flights that took place for the former. Unfortunately, I only realised what was happening two weeks after the actual start meaning that I have no accurate record of actual arrivals during that period. This is a significant loss since it means I cannot now calculate milestones such as the first 500 actual arrivals and any important milestones thereafter. The presence of a brand new airline at an airport is always an exciting prospect and especially since all the recent negativity of COVID. So, it was with much anticipation that Eswatini Air made its inaugural arrival at KSIA on May 5, 2023 as the first new FBSPO since British Airways started its Durban operation to KSIA in late-2018. By so doing, Eswatini Air became the tenth FBSPO to start serving Durban since 2010 and also the first FBSPO ever to have sourced from the tiny land-locked nation of Eswatini (formerly called Swaziland). Moreover, it was the first FBSPO ever to have used the Embraer ERJ-145 regional jet as primary aircraft equipment to KSIA, possessing only two examples as its start-up equipment for the initial four route network (Johannesburg, Zimbabwe, Durban and Cape Town). At the time of its maiden Durban arrival, it became the fifth FBSPO present and only the second regional FBSPO currently serving this city alongside Proflight Zambia. It is only the third regional FBSPO carrier in totality since 2010. The two Embraer ERJ-145EPs are 50-seat all-economy class jets with 31-inch pitch seat parameters. The airline operates from its hub at King Mswati III International Airport in Manzini, Eswatini and is a wholly government funded carrier. The 367km (228 mile) great circle distance between Manzini and Durban is the shortest ever one-way route flown by any FBSPO to date. The initial flight schedule as advertised to Durban comprised once daily arrivals direct from Eswatini at 18H30 with departures at 07H55 the next day under flight numbers RN201 and RN202 respectively. Whether this schedule was initially achieved by the start-up carrier is unknown, however. Significantly, if achieved, this would have been the latest FBSPO arrival time ever at KSIA and led to the earliest ever departure time of any FBSPO at KSIA. It would also have been the first FBSPO to ever have its aircraft overnight at KSIA. For about a (week and a half?) (between May 5 and May 27), the usual once daily frequency altered to three arrivals weekly on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays and arrival and departure times also altered to respectively 11H30 and 14H10 at Durban. The final day for this different flight schedule was June 1 with the return to 18H30 arrival times from June 4. During the first two months of its Durban operations, hardly a week went by without at least one flight cancellation and there would appear to have been no fixed flying schedule although the Thursday arrival always seemed to prevail above all the others. Also noteworthy during June was the use of the Royal Zambian Airlines (RZA) ERJ-145LR registered 9J-TST (c/n 145305) which was used exclusively on the Durban route from June 4 to June 29, 2023, during which it logged a total of 14 actual scheduled arrivals. It wore RZA markings on the engine pods. Royal Air Charters is a subsidiary of RZA and leases aircraft throughout Zambia and beyond and had evidently chartered this ERJ to Eswatini Air. From July 1, 2023, Eswatini Air's own ERJ-145s resumed operations on the Durban route and simultaneously the airline saw fit to once again alter its arrival times such that each of its three weekly scheduled arrivals were disparate! Mondays were15H40 (16H20 departure), Wednesdays 11H15 (12H05) and Saturdays 08H00 (09H00) and making this the first ever FBSPO to have three different arrival times for its three successive weekly arrivals. The next change came from November 1 when only a single arrival weekly occurred on Saturdays. This was sustained until almost the close of the year. Despite the mix up eluded to above, I was able to confirm at least 78 actual arrivals, although the likely final figure could be between 85 and 90. With 2024 being their first full year of operations to Durban, this regional will surely be hoping to settle down to a more stable flight frequency. PROFLIGHT ZAMBIA After a break of just over three years, in 2023 KSIA once again enjoyed the presence of a regional FBSPO in the familiar guise of Proflight Zambia. After a first operating period lasting four years and six months, the private airline and also the largest in Zambia, had been forced to suspend its Durban service due to the mandatory South African COVID-19 restrictions on international travel from late-March 2020. Unexpectedly, when international flying was again made open to South Africa later in the year, the airline did not immediately return to its Durban route but instead opened a new route direct from Lusaka to Johannesburg which was felt to be more stable and predictable at this difficult time. With this route well established, some years later Proflight once again started to put out its tentacles to expand its regional network and the long-familiar Durban route came back into sharp focus. Not only did the airline have many years experience operating the route, but most significantly it already knew the profitability and costs of operating the CRJ on it. Before it could do this, however, it needed to expand its admittedly too humble regional aircraft fleet. Having pronounced itself most satisfied with the performance and reliability of its original CRJ100ER, two additional CRJs were leased from Canadian-based aircraft leasing concern, Avmax Aircraft Leasing Inc. These were 200LRs 9J-PFA (c/n 7796) and 9J-PFZ (c/n 7391) which respectively first arrived in Zambia on December 2, 2022 and January 7, 2022. Like the CRJ 100ER, both 200s were similarly in a 50-seat all-economy class seating configuration which had proved adequate for the airline's needs thus far. Prior to Proflight's lease, Avmax was advertising c/n 7796 as having 33,608 flying hours and 28,930 cycles, so clearly no spring chicken! The sole difference between the CRJ100s and 200s is the more fuel-efficient engines fitted to the latter which provide a higher cruise altitude, range and speed. The initial flight schedule was two arrivals weekly (Thursdays and Sundays) with Durban arrivals scheduled for 11H30 and, following a one hour turnaround, arrival back at Lusaka following at about 15H00. The first Sunday arrival was only on April 16, however, with a once-off 'special' flight on April 11 to return passengers to Lusaka after the Easter long weekend in South Africa. As before, the direct route linked Lusaka's Kenneth Kaunda International Airport with KSIA with advertising to this effect having appeared on the airline's website from early February 2023. The opening arrival of the second service period to Durban was initiated by CRJ200LR 9J-PFZ on April 6, 2023. During June 2023, the airline announced that some flight cancellations would inevitably result from an unscheduled maintenance event affecting one of its CRJs and that among others, the Durban route would also be affected as was the case. The airline described this event as '...the greatest challenge since COVID' and giving some indication of its impact on operations. At the same time the carrier announced that it had acquired a further CRJ (its fourth) and a Boeing 737-500. The latter had commenced operations on time on June 1, 2023 while the additional CRJ would be on line by the start of September 2023. The Boeing was not intended for use on the Durban route specifically, however. But, it is interesting to note that this very same aircraft, 737-5Y0 registered ZS-TGY, had previously been leased by Proflight from the same leasing company, OR Tambo-based Africa Charter Airline, during 2019 and made a total of four arrivals at KSIA on behalf of Proflight that year. Despite having restarted its Durban operation well into the year combined with the many cancellations meant that 2023 was a very 'scrappy' year for the airline and it never achieved anywhere near its maximum potential for the year based on its two arrivals weekly flight frequency. It only achieved 66 total actual scheduled passenger arrivals for 2023 with a staggering twelve cancellations. No doubt the airline will be hoping to start with a clean sheet of paper for 2024, which will be its first full year of operations again following its return to Durban. TURKISH AIRLINES The first week of 2023 revealed that the year was not going to see a record number of arrivals for this carrier. The year kicked off with Turkish immediately reducing its flight frequency from an already-low two-per-week to now only one arrival weekly. Not only had the previous 2022 frequency been the lowest ever sustainably flown by Turkish to Durban, but the latest change was to be lowest yet with the former Thursday arrival being dropped in favour of only the Saturday arrival. The only consolation was that the heftier Airbus A350-900 was still being used rather than the smaller A330-300 used for so long on this route. This frequency reduction was reversed again from Thursday, February 2 restoring the two arrivals per week schedule to the same days of the week. Only now could one speculate what most likely occurred. Since January is traditionally super quiet passenger demand wise, the airline might not have had sufficient demand to justify laying on two flights weekly over this period, at least not on its Durban sector. The airline had its first cancellation of the year on February 16, when the flight only went as far as Johannesburg for reasons unknown. A second cancellation, on October 2, was the last for the year. Late March saw important changes as the airline increased its frequency from two to three adding Mondays. For one week only, all three then extant FBSPOs flew on Monday making it the busiest arrivals day of the week until the appearance of Proflight Zambia the very next week. It is noteworthy that this new extra flight was conducted with the A330-300 rather than the usual A350-941 used on the two other days in a further example of the two-aircraft type fixed rotation flown thereafter. On April 17, 2023, A330-300ER TC-JNL provided the airline with a new milestone with the airline's 1,000th actual arrival, thereby becoming only the fourth FBSPO to have achieved this milestone at KSIA. The airline's next Durban anomaly came at the start of May when the A350 gave way whole souled to the A330 for all three arrivals per week. The last A350-941 arrival (for the time being in any effect) was recorded by TC-LGF on April 29, 2023. The A350-941 thus recorded a total of 76 actual arrivals during this first stint of Turkish service to Durban. During 2023 the carrier achieved 29 total actual arrivals for the A350 and 109 total A330 actual arrivals. Although unconfirmed by this writer, October 16 may well have been the first ever appearance of an A330-200 model at KSIA in the colours of Turkish Airlines. -203 registered TC-JNA replaced the standard -300ER on this unique occasion. It would be the only use of this model in 2023. This model carries 250 passengers in a two-class seating layout. The A330-300ER was dominant throughout the rest of the year, Turkish airlines and Qatar Airways being the sole two FBSPOs to have each operated two disparate aircraft types during 2023. By the close of 2023, Turkish Airlines had yet to return to its four arrivals weekly standard that prevailed pre-COVID. With its two flight cancellations and a slight delay to starting operations to Durban at the start of the year (its first arrival was only logged on January 7 rather than its maximum potential of January 2), this carrier fell somewhat short of its maximum potential this year. Nevertheless, it still achieved more arrivals than the previous year. With only 138 actual arrivals achieved, this placed it firmly in third place for the year behind Qatar Airways and Emirates. Nevertheless, grand total actual annual arrivals by aircraft type to date for this carrier amount to: 20 B777, 76 A350 and 1,013 A330 for a grand total of 1,109 arrivals. Of the three intercontinental carriers Turkish Airlines would seem to have the most to do to return its Durban route to its pre-COVID glory. Will 2024 see a sustained return to the pre-COVID four arrivals weekly schedule? QATAR AIRWAYS Qatar Airways has shown far greater flying equipment stability during 2022 and 2023 than during the turbulent COVID-19 period of 2020/21. Even so, there have been some changes: On March 24 A7-BAW brought the lengthly QA Boeing 777 present stint to at least temporary finality, with this type having completed 252 actual successive arrivals to Durban using both the -200LR and -300ER variants. With its surface degradation issues settled, QA recommenced use of the Airbus A350 to Durban on its fifth distinct service period to KSIA! The opening flight was conducted on March 26 by A350-941 registered A7-ALQ. On March 29 the larger and rarer A350-1041 (A7-ANE) made a brief once-off appearance, this marking only the third time that this model has tasted the salt laden air at Durban since QA started flying there in late-2015. Although six subsequent -1041 arrivals occurred, these were random and at no time became sustainable. Interestingly, this is now the first time that two FBSPOs have operated the A350 to KSIA concurrently (with Turkish Airlines), both these airlines having been the only FBSPOs to have ever operated this type sustainably to Durban to date. This development occurred over the period March 26 to April 29, 2023. Despite Turkish Airlines flying three scheduled arrivals weekly and Qatar Airways four, none of the grand total of 32 actual arrivals recorded over this period by the two carriers took place on the same day. Like Emirates, Qatar Airways was able to commence the year with its opening arrival on the very first day of 2023. With no flight cancellations during the year, it was able to maximise its potential and achieved a very creditable 210 actual arrivals and placing it only second to Emirates on the Durban route. It is important to note that 210 actual arrivals is an all-time record number for Qatar Airways at Durban. It beats by only one the previous all-time record of 209 annual arrivals equalled on three previous years. A total of 48 B777 arrivals in the first quarter of the year (47 -300ERs and one -200LR) brought grand total arrivals for this type since QA's start of Durban operations to 569, the balance of the year being the privy of the Airbus A350 with a total of 162 arrivals (made of seven -1041 arrivals and 155 -941 equivalents). This is the highest representativeness yet by the A350 in any one year since 109 arrivals was achieved by the type with this operator in 2019. It is of note that the seven -1041 arrivals were all made by different registrations. No Qatar Airways' -1041 has come to KSIA more than once yet up to the close of 2023. By the close of 2023 grand total actual arrivals figures for all Qatar Airways types to date stood at 1,502 comprising 425 A350, 508 B787 and 569 B777. In less than one year, the A350 could become the single most prolific Qatar Airways type to Durban usurping both the B787 and B777. EMIRATES Unlike 2020, 2021 and 2022, which had reduced the potential of Emirates to deliver at its best, 2023 was its first 'typical' year for this carrier since then. While 2022 only saw the carrier recommence its Durban route on February 1, following the fourth wave of COVID-19 restrictions, thereby denying it a total of 31 actual arrivals for that year from the get go, 2023 was unencumbered by such limitations and the airline made its first flight to Durban on the very first day of the year and on every day thereafter. It was one of only two of five extant FBSPOs not to have suffered any flight cancellations throughout its Durban operation in 2023. As a result, the carrier achieved its maximum potential for the year of 365 actual scheduled arrivals, its highest annual total in the last four successive years and the highest of any FBSPO during the same time. This figure is also far higher than those of its next closest rival, Qatar Airways with only 210 actual arrivals for 2023. Prior to COVID, Emirates had set a precedent of operating additional flights (two daily) on at least some days around Christmas and before New Year's. With no such flights having occurred since COVID, this writer wondered whether 2023 might be the first year since COVID of additional flights. These would serve as a very visible indication of the return to pre-COVID activity levels, but alas it was not to be. Emirates has yet to achieve its pre-COVID glory in this respect. As ever, it solely operated the long-serving B777 to Durban on its daily rotation from Dubai. Of the three extant intercontinental FBSPOs serving Durban, only Emirates flies direct, both Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines making use of long-established doglegs. It might surprise readers that, even after all these years of operating the B777 to KSIA, there are still some individual registrations amongst the extensive Emirates B777 fleet (which to date has totalled 177 passenger carrying variants) that have yet to make their maiden appearance at KSIA! This year saw one of these, A6-EPB, finally make its first ever appearance at Durban on November 20, 2023. It has taken since August 31, 2015 (when this registration was first delivered to Emirates) or in excess of eight years to be assigned to Durban for the very first time! Other first-time arrivals at Durban during 2023 were: A6-EGX, -EPV, -EPY, -EQA, -EQI and -EQL. Better late than never. 2023 saw a disproportionately large number of appearances from B777s which have been to Durban previously, but just not for a very long time, compared with previous years. Quite a number of these airframes had not been to KSIA in over four years. But, of these, the most spectacular single appearance must surely go to A6-EBK, which made its reappearance at these shores on November 9, 2023 after having last visited Durban on May 31, 2019 – almost four years and six months ago! And then, as if to reinforce its presence, it made a further arrival on November 18, 2023. Interestingly, this registration was at the time of writing, the oldest surviving Emirates B777 in the extant fleet, having first been accepted by the carrier on lease from Aer Cap as far back as February 15, 2006. At the close of the year, grand totals of annual actual arrivals by aircraft type for Emirates at KSIA to date stood at:762 A330 and 3,725 B777 for a combined total of 4,487. No-one comes close. (table deleted: TABLE 6: EMIRATES BREAKDOWN OF B777 ACTUAL ARRIVALS BY LETTER BLOCK AT KSIA FOR 2023)

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