The SAAF Forum

FOREIGN-BASED SCHEDULED PASSENGER OPERATOR ANNUAL
REVIEW AT KSIA FOR 2024
researched and compiled by Clinton Barnard

Note: (1) I go to great expense in both time and data in trying to confirm aircraft arrivals, which is not always as easy as one might think, especially when considering airlines like Proflight Zambia and Eswatini Air, whose arrivals frequently end up labeled as 'unknown' or equivalent by flight tracking sites. Then, considerable time needs to be spent cross-checking other sites. Only if a certain specific minimum criteria of data is confirmed by me will I consider an arrival as legitimate. If there is any doubt, then there is no doubt – it is unknown by me too!
(2) None of the data presented here is official, but has been collected from both assorted Internet data sources and from my personal visual and daily observations of relevant sources.
(3) Tables have been intentionally removed to prevent their corruption on this site. If anyone would like the full version with all Tables included, please message (only) me privately on either WhatsApp 0760511586 or e-mail me on: oopsaahcast@yahoo.com for a free copy.


2024 was an exciting a year as any in the history of Durban's King Shaka International Airport (KSIA).
As expected, it was a record year regarding the post COVID period. The grand total number of actual scheduled passenger arrivals was at least 151 (8.1%) more than last year, the previous highest year post COVID.
All the FBSPOs (Foreign-Based Scheduled Passenger Operators) that were present last year increased their actual arrival figures compared with 2023.
One new airline joined King Shaka's ranks while there were no airline losses meaning that six FBSPOs were serving King Shaka by the close of the year – the highest number since COVID, but crucially, still one shy of the all-time record achieved pre-COVID.
2024 saw an all-time record number of three FBSPO regional airlines serving KSIA simultaneously.
The year was characterised by many of the FBSPOs reshuffling their flight schedules or (importantly) increasing their flight frequencies and/or increasing the capacities of the replacement aircraft incrementally. This was applicable to four of the extant FBSPOs – Eswatini Air, Proflight Zambia, Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways.
Average actual weekly FBSPO arrivals increased from 18 in the opening months of the year to 23 by the closing weeks of the year.
All the above is tangible evidence that things are slowly, but very definitely, moving to the right with the plateau yet to be reached.
This all bodes well for the short term favourable expectations of FBSPO aviation at KSIA.

TABLE 1: SAMPLE FBSPO DAILY ARRIVALS FREQUENCIES AT KSIA (16.12.2024 to 31.12.2024)
(deleted)

From the above Table, it is apparent that all of the six extant FBSPOs flew on Fridays making it the busiest day of the week. Next busiest was Sunday with five FBSPOs present. Wednesday was next busiest with four FBSPOs followed by Monday with three and Saturdays and Thursdays with two. Tuesday was the quietest day with only Emirates appearing. There were no days with no appearances.
Emirates was the only operator to appear on all days of the week while at one point, Proflight Zambia flew the lowest sustained frequency of once weekly for a brief period of a few weeks.
Only two FBSPOs flew doglegs, while four flew direct rotations to/from Durban.

TABLE 2: FBSPO TOTAL ACTUAL WEEKLY ARRIVALS FREQUENCIES AT KSIA FOR 2024
(deleted)

TABLE 3: MULTIPLES OF TOTAL ACTUAL WEEKLY ARRIVALS BY FBSPO AT KSIA FOR 2024
(deleted)

TABLE 4: FBSPO PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN BY AIRCRAFT TYPE FOR 2024
(deleted)

From the above, Turkish Airlines flew the greatest diversity of sustained primary equipment with three aircraft types employed during the year with Qatar Airways flying two main types of three variants.
At least 1,008 actual arrivals occurred compared with 2023's minimum of 857, a minimum difference of 151.
The fact that six FBSPOs operated a total of seven main aircraft types sustainably throughout the year continues to demonstrate the great aircraft type diversity that has always characterised KSIA flight operations – one aspect that makes KSIA operations particularly fascinating.
The potential grand total number of aircraft arrivals for the year was 1,024 with at least 1,008 actual arrivals being confirmed by me.
Clearly, there would seem to be room for improvement in reducing the number of flight cancellations to within more acceptable levels (as repeatedly and positively demonstrated by the Big Three: Emirates, Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines).

TABLE 5: TOTAL FBSPO ACTUAL SCHEDULED ARRIVALS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE FOR 2024
(deleted)

Once again, Emirates helped to make the Boeing 777 the most used FBSPO aircraft type of 2024, followed by the Boeing 787 as was employed by two FBSPOs.

Air Botswana

The national airline of Botswana and fully government owned, Air Botswana became the eleventh FBSPO to start flight operations to KSIA with its opening arrival on December 4, 2024.
What some might not know is that this maiden arrival should have taken place two months earlier based on the start date provided by the carrier – October 2, 2024. However, this date came and went with no sign of the airline at urban and no official announcement from the airline as to what had happened.
Significantly, the supposed “jet equipment” that the carrier had originally announced to use on the route failed to materialse and instead the opening rotation was completed by one of the airline's two turboprop ATR 72-600s registration A2-ABL. In fact, this registration would go on to complete every rotation of the year to KSIA singlehandedly.
The ATRs are fitted with 70 seats in an all-economy layout.
Air Botswana becomes the first FBSPO ever to serve Durban with the ATR 72. But even more interestingly, the carrier also became the first FBSPO to use turboprop equipment sustainably to KSIA.
Alarmingly, the second rotation, just two days later, was cancelled for reasons unknown. This was the sole cancellation for the airline on its Durban route for the year.
On August 12, 2024, the small regional southern African airline announced its expansion plans that included the addition of a new route to Durban, among other regional routes, including to Windhoek, Namibia.
At this time, the airline already served both Johannesburg and Cape Town so Durban became the third South African destination for it – the usual sequence of destination for international airlines flying to South Africa.
It would also become the sixth current FBSPO at KSIA and the third extant regional carrier alongside Eswatini Air and Proflight Zambia.
The airline confirmed that the direct flight from Sir Seretse Khama International Airport in Gaborone would have an initial three arrivals weekly frequency for Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays with respective arrival times at Durban of 09H30, 13H40 and 13H40. Turnarounds were of 45 minutes duration in all cases.
The aircraft parks on the far eastern apron facing east .with passengers needing to be bussed to and from the main terminal building which is on the opposite side of the far western taxiway.
The great circle distance of the route is 762km (473 miles) and averages about 1 hour 48 minutes flying time one way with the ATR.
At the time, the carrier's humble aircraft fleet counted a total of only three aircraft: the two ATR 72-600s plus a single Embraer E170LR turbofan engined aircraft also seating 70 passengers in a single class arrangement.
No doubt to help service its new routes, in September 2024 the airline announced the acquisition of three new aircraft – two leased Embraer ERJ-145s and one Embraer E175STD, the latter having been purchased for a company quoted total of USD9.5million. The latter is in an 88-seat all economy class layout and thereby making it the latest flagship of the fleet.
With its commencement of Durban operations so late into the year, only a meagre eleven arrivals resulted prior to the close of the year.
With next year being the first full year of operations at Durban, assuming the same flight frequency is maintained, a final total in excess of 150 actual arrivals should abound in 2025.

Emirates

Emirates, as is usual, brought few changes of any significance this past year.
It continued quietly getting on with what it does best.
As previously, it continued to operate the ubiquitous Boeing 777-300ER as sole equipment for the entire year on its direct rotation between Dubai and Durban.
Dubai International Airport suffered unusual flooding which rendered significant portions of the airport under water and impeded the ground movement of aircraft. This inevitably had an adverse effect on the timely departure of flights while others were delayed outright.
The Durban bound flight for April 18, was initially delayed and then cancelled, but fortunately this was the sole cancellation due to this and indeed any cause in 2024. The flight resumed again on April 19, albeit somewhat delayed for the same reasons.
While this writer believed 2024 would be the best opportunity since COVID for witnessing additional flights over the December period as in the distant past, this was not to be.
The 365 total actual arrivals for the year by the close of 2024 made this operator the lead FBSPO for KSIA by a long margin.
In the past, I have commented on the maiden arrival of individual B777s to Durban and 2024 also saw one first ever arrival in the form of -31H(ER) registered A6-EQM on June 2, 2024. Despite the once sizable B777 fleet and the length of Durban operations, it might surprise some that there are a small number that have yet to make their maiden southward trek to KSIA.
One particularly interesting registration anomaly was A6-EPV. This aircraft had made its first ever appearance at KSIA on August 3, 2023 and its next (second) appearance exactly one year later on August 3, 2024! It failed to make any further appearance at KSIA prior to the close of the year.

TABLE 6: BREAKDOWN OF EMIRATES ACTUAL ARRIVALS BY REGISTRATION LETTER BLOCK FOR 2024
(deleted)

From the above table, it is evident that the Q Block registrations were least represented in 2024 with only a single appearance. C Block registrations didn't fair much better with only three total appearances in sharp contrast to the previous year's figure. The G Block was best represented with 39% (142 total actual arrivals) of all Emirates arrivals. Next highest was the N Block with 29% (106 total actual arrivals).

Eswatini Air

2024 demonstrated far greater stability for this carrier as far as its flight schedule to Durban is concerned compared with 2023.
Although it had settled on two arrivals weekly from the start of the year, the initial arrival days of Mondays and Saturdays gave way to Fridays and Sundays from the start of April and continued as such right through towards the close of the year.
The year was rather unremarkable from a flight schedule perspective and the only real anomaly was the charter of Cem Air's one Canadair CRJ100ER ZS-CMB (c/n 7215) which replaced the Embraer ERJ-145EPs usually employed on this rotation, for the flight on Sunday, December 15.
Whereas in 2023 almost exclusive use had been made by 3DC-EAA on the Durban route, in 2024 the utilisation was better balanced alongside 3DC-EAB.
With 2024 also being the airline's first full year of KSIA operation, obviously it could be expected to have flown more arrivals than in the first part year and this was achieved.
Its maximum potential for the year, with the scheduled two weekly arrivals, was a total of 104. Unfortunately, I was only able to confirm 96 actual arrivals. It is not impossible that the full 104 was actually flown.
Interestingly, this total even beat Proflight Zambia's total, despite both airlines operating two arrivals weekly and Proflight having far greater experience on its Durban route.
I was unable to confirm any flight cancellations for the year, but any or all of the unknown arrivals could potentially have been cancellations or not
Eswatini Air flies the shortest direct or otherwise route to Durban to date of any FBSPO, namely a great circle distance of 367km (228 miles).

Proflight Zambia

Proflight Zambia was the first carrier to bring about change in 2024 when it sustainably changed its arrival days from the long-running twice-weekly arrival schedule of Thursdays and Sundays to now Mondays and Fridays. This commenced from early February 2024. All other parameters remained unchanged.
It one day occurred to me that it would be fascinating to know whether, following acquisition of their fourth CRJ, a situation had ever existed whereby all four aircraft had flown successively to Durban? I did not have to look long since this unique scenario had indeed first occurred on April 5, 2024 with 9J-PFA having been preceded by 9J-PFZ on April 1, 9J-PZA on March 29 and finally 9J-PFD on March 25.
June 28, 2024 saw arrival and departure times for both Durban flying days, Fridays and Mondays, sustainably changed from late mornings to late afternoons. Arrivals were now 17H10 at KSIA and departures from there at 17H50 under the revised flight numbers of P036 and P037 respectively, replacing the former 10H45 arrivals and 11H30 departures of flight numbers respectively P032 and P033. As an aside, it is fascinating to me that www.flightradar24.com continues to reflect both the P032 and P033 flight schedule on its pages despite this schedule having been redundant since July 2024!
Proflight Zambia's original jet equipment used on the Durban route from September 2015, CRJ100ER, 9J-PZA, was retired permanently from use having made its final Durban rotation on August 5, 2024. A fifth passenger configured CRJ200LR, c/n 7612, 9J-PFE, was delivered on August 16, 2024 to replace it. This thereby restored the passenger carrying CRJ fleet to four aircraft.
Note that a fifth CRJ is used for exclusive cargo operations.
Despite the increased fleet size which should have assured operational continuity, Proflight continue to be plagued by a sprinkling of cancellations each year. 2024 was no exception with five reducing the maximum potential of 99 to the ultimate figure of 94 actual arrivals, admittedly far higher than the 66 actual arrivals of last year.
This regional's short term goal must surely be to achieve a full year without any cancellations.

Turkish Airlines

The close of March witnessed significant change in both frequency and aircraft equipment for this carrier on its Durban route. Even so, the Johannesburg dogleg and flight schedule times remained unaltered.
For the first time since the start of COVID in early 2020, it increased its arrivals frequency from three to four weekly, an operational indication that the carrier's performance had at last at least equalled that of pre-COVID times. Arrivals were now on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays rather than the previous Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays with only Mondays being common to both frequencies.
Also significant was the sustained change from the A330 to the Boeing 787-9, the latter a type never before operated by Turkish on its Durban route.
By so doing, Turkish became the third different FBSPO to operate the B787 to Durban sustainably while the B787 became the fourth aircraft type operated to Durban by Turkish to date. Turkish thus became the first FBSPO to have ever operated four different aircraft types in its own colours to KSIA.
The final A330 rotation was recorded by TC-LNF on March 30, 2024, bringing the grand total number of A330 arrivals at Durban by this carrier to date to 1,052*. There were 39 total A330 arrivals in 2024 and this final stint lasted 148 actual arrivals long having commenced on March 27, 2023. The majority of these had been completed by the -300ER model, but also included in this figure was the only one by a -200 model.
The next arrival was the first recorded by the new Boeing 787-9 and was flown by TC-LLF on April 1, 2024.
In Turkish service the B787-9 seats 300 passengers with 30 business class and 270 economy class seats, eleven more than the total of 289 on the A330. The one extra weekly flight plus this increase in aircraft carrying capacity meant that Turkish was now able to offer 333 more seats per week to Durban than that possible with the previous schedule and equipment. The challenge ahead is obviously to now fill this capacity economically.
The Boeing 787-9 did not stick around for long. After having completed only 77 arrivals since its first to Durban for Turkish Airlines, August 12, 2024 witnessed the final arrival (for the time being in any event) as completed by TC-LLI.
Replacing this type, starting from the next arrival, was TC-LGV, an Airbus A350-941 with this type now initiating its second service period for this carrier to KSIA on April 14, 2024. This meant that, for the first time since its KSIA career, this airline had now flown three main aircraft types during the course of a single year (2024). Although a Turkish Airlines milestone at KSIA, it is not an absolute FBSPO record for the airport.
The increase in seat capacity translated to 29 per arrival or potentially 116 more per week since the A350 seated 329 passengers (32 business class and 297 economy class) compared with the 300 total of the Boeing 787-9.
Turkish Airlines was the only FBSPO not to suffer even one cancellation in 2024. It thus achieved the full potential of 196 actual arrivals which compares favourably with the previous year's 138 arrivals.
With its flight schedule back up to its all-time high of four weekly from the start of 2025, there is every reason that that year should witness a final total of around 208 actual arrivals again.

Qatar Airways

2024 proved to be a year of great instability for this operator compared with the previous year.
It witnessed one record breaking change in flight frequency, two main aircraft equipment changes and no fewer than three flight schedule adjustments (way more than any other FBSPO for this year).
The end of March witnessed very significant changes being introduced with this carrier involving main aircraft equipment, flight frequency, flight schedule and route.
The long-time Johannesburg dogleg which, except for a few months during COVID in 2021, is believed to have been an intrinsic component of the success of the Durban route for this carrier, was flown for the last time on March 29, 2024.
Also flying for the last time, for the time being, on this date was the Airbus A350 The last rotation involved registration A7-ALA on March 29. This brought this fifth stint for the A350 in Qatari service to an end after amassing an impressive total of 212 actual A350 arrivals for this stint alone which had started on March 26, 2023.
Although this stint was predominantly achieved with the A350-941 variant, a sprinkling of -1041s could also be found amongst them.
This brought the grand total for all A350 variants to date on the Durban route for Qatar Airways to 475 actual arrivals, thereby making the A350 the least flown of the three main aircraft types operated to Durban thus far by Qatar Airways.
The choice of the registration A7-ALA for the final A350 flight, while probably pure coincidence, was not insignificant given that this very aircraft had been the first of this type delivered to any airline by Airbus and the first delivery to Qatar Airways for this type way back on December 22, 2014!
Replacing the A350 on the next flight was the previously operated Boeing 787-8, now in its third service period to Durban for this carrier. The last Qatari B787-8 arrival had been recorded on November 21, 2021 as a once-off but it had been the B787-8 which had opened the Qatari account at King Shaka back in 2015.
Qatari B787-8s seat a total of 254 passengers comprising 22 business and 232 economy seats. This is appreciably fewer than the 283 of the A350 it has replaced. Possibly to compensate, the carrier saw fit to increase its arrivals frequency to five weekly on Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays. This was the first time that this airline had ever exceeded four arrivals weekly on this route.
Despite the reduced aircraft capacity, the extra weekly arrivals meant that the airline now offered a total 421 more seats weekly to KSIA than the previous three arrivals weekly schedule.
Replacing Johannesburg as dogleg was a new dogleg, Maputo in Mozambique.
Of course, this dogleg was not completely unfamiliar to Qatar Airways which had made use of it during the COVID period of 2020/21 As then, the new dogleg would only be used outbound, while inbound was a direct sector from Doha, with Durban serving as turn point.
Arrival times also significantly changed from 17H30 to 10H35.
The opening arrival by the B787-8 was recorded on March 31, 2024 by registration A7-BCH.
After only nine weeks of the new flight schedule, the schedule was changed marginally from June 3 with the dropping of the Thursday arrival and the addition of Monday. The frequency remained five per week.
The transition between these two schedules resulted in an interesting once-off record for the airline which saw it achieve six successive daily arrivals over six successive days for the first time ever to Durban – May 29 to June 3! This beat by one arrival the operator record freshly achieved above.
The next change came fast and furious with the Maputo dogleg being flown only outbound for the last time on July 1, 2024 by Boeing 787-8 registration A7-BDA. Starting from the next flight on July 3, the Maputo dogleg now featured on both the inbound and outbound sectors on the same rotation between Doha and Durban for the first time ever. This new route was first flown by Boeing 787-8 registered A7-BDA (again! Clearly this aircraft enjoys being in the limelight).
On September 21 and 23, the A350-941 made an unusual entry on the until now exclusively Boeing 787-8 flown Maputo – Durban route, with one Boeing arrival squeezed in between on the 22nd.
The reason for these additions can only be speculated at, but it may suggest the type that the carrier might upgrade the route to going forward should passenger numbers again justify it.
The A350 is a natural progression from the B787 for Qatar Airways. In fact, this is not the first time that the A350 has been used by this carrier on the Durban - Maputo route. The turbulent COVID period witnessed the first use of the A350 on this route from December 10, 2020 to February 14, 2021, the gaps both before and during this period being otherwise dominated by the Boeing 787-8.
The anticipated transition materialised on October 26 with the final arrival (for now) of a Boeing 787-8 (A7-BDC) thereby concluding the most recent period of service that lasted 148 actual arrivals long.
Starting an incredible sixth period of service to Durban for this operator, was the actual arrival on the very next flight on October 27, of an A350-941 (A7-AMK), the second time this year that the Airbus product had served the Durban route for Qatar Airways. This was also the second occasion on which both Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways had flown the A350 simultaneously to KSIA.
Although Qatar Airways was the first to fly the the A350-1000 to Durban in 2021, a new milestone played out on November 9 when A7-ANQ became the first -1041 to ever fly the rotation from Doha to Durban via Maputo. This was only a once-off, but was also the first use of this larger variant by the carrier to Durban since its last use of this version in 2023.
Interestingly, although ten differently registered -1041s had operated to Durban for this airline since this model's first appearance, not one registration has yet been repeated, thereby making every appearance a new one!
Quite ironically, the arrival immediately prior to this -1041 one, saw the only Qatar Airways' Durban arrival cancellation of the year on November 8, 2024.
One particularly interesting anomaly played out over the period 18, 19, 20 and 21 December 2024 - the first occasion ever on which the same QA registration had completed four successive Durban rotations over four successive days. This was executed by A350-941 A7-ALS.
Previously, four successive rotations had been completed by one registration, but over a longer time period. The latter occurred with Boeing 777-200LR A7-BBC over April 8, 10, 11 and 13, 2022. It is unknown whether these two anomalies had been equalled prior to these dates.
With the airline having increased its flight frequency to its record high of five arrivals weekly, it follows that a record number of arrivals would result. The maximum potential of 247 actual arrivals was compromised by the one cancellation resulting in a record 246 actual arrivals and thereby handsomely beating the airline's previous all-time record of 210 achieved in 2023.
Should this arrivals frequency be sustained for the whole of 2025, there is every reason why 2025's figure should not be yet another all-time record for QA.

ENDS