The SAAF Forum

FOREIGN-BASED SCHEDULED PASSENGER OPERATOR ANNUAL REVIEW FOR KSIA

researched and compiled by Clinton Barnard


Note: 1. None of the figures quoted in this report are official, but are based on my own daily observations of relevant web sites. If I have any reason to doubt the accuracy of any figure, there are ways and means of cross-checking the same data on multiple other sites to corroborate accuracy. I have had no reason to doubt the accuracy of my source data.
2. Due to corruption of Tables on this platform, I have deleted them. I however, retain the Table headings to hint at what is being missed. Only with the contents of the Tables is the statistical data complete for the report. Should anyone want the free full review with Tables, please contact me on 0760511586 WhatsApp or E-mail oopsaahcast@yahoo.com.


Ever since COVID-19 first broke in early 2020, Foreign-Based Scheduled Passenger Operator (FBSPO) aviation at Durban, South Africa's King Shaka International Airport (KSIA) has mostly been on the up as it systematically recovered.
Each successive year saw mostly increase and the gradual return of former and even the addition of new FBSPOs.
One might have wondered when this general upward trend would plateau? Would it be at the equivalent level of super activity immediately prior to COVID, at a level beyond or at a lower level?
As this review will highlight, 2025 was a watershed year in the above process. Without the addition of further FBSPOs or dramatic increases in flight frequency by existing FBSPOs, the total arrivals figure of 2025 will not be exceeded in 2026. For FBSPO aviation at KSIA, the plateau of expansion has been reached for now.
Despite this negativity, there were many positives to take out of 2025.
Two significant operating milestones were reached, more than one airport and some airline records were established or obliterated and one FBSPO had the courage to trial a significant increase in flight frequency that ultimately failed, but still resulted in a all-time record annual number of arrivals for it.
Always in the shadow of the more impressive Big Three (Emirates, Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways), one little regional flew a faultless year without even one cancellation – an achievement that many larger and older regional carriers must eye with envy.
In both my 2023 and 2024 annual reports I was unable to do a detailed analysis of weekly arrivals since I was unable to confirm 100% of arrivals, but there were no such issues in 2025, so a more complete analysis is possible below.
The year kicked off with 22 weekly FBSPO arrivals (this compares with the all-time equivalent figure of 38 achieved immediately pre-COVID) and peaked at 23 for five successive weeks when both Air Botswana was contributing and Qatar Airways was trialling its higher flight frequency.
With the demise of Air Botswana at Durban and Qatar Airways returning to a lower weekly flight frequency, this figure plunged to 18 weekly arrivals and so it remained until the end of the year.
Ironically enough, it was the demise of the regional carrier Proflight Zambia operations from Durban that instigated the unique situation that prevailed directly thereafter.
Prior to this airline's final scheduled passenger Durban arrival on January 3, 2025, Proflight had been the sole one of the then six extant FBSPOs not to fly to Durban on a Sunday. Following its final flight to KSIA, starting the week of January 6 to 12, 2025 however, all five extant FBSPOs now all flew to KSIA on both Fridays and Sundays.
These two days alone thus accounted for ten of the 21 average weekly arrivals at this time (assuming no flight cancellations) and accounting for 48% of weekly arrivals, the balance of 52% being made up on the remaining five days of the week.
This situation had never existed before and thus established a new operating record for KSIA.
Most significantly, however, this was not a once-off event, but was sustained indefinitely thereafter.
It is more than a little interesting to reflect back that Proflight provided a long-time Sunday service to KSIA before dropping the day that all other Durban-bound FBSPOs (both regional and intercontinental) consider essential to their schedule! Sunday had clearly worked for the carrier for many years previously, but apparently not anymore?


TABLE 1: FBSPO MULTIPLES OF WEEKLY ARRIVALS AT KSIA IN 2025



TABLE 2.1: SAMPLE FBSPO DAILY ARRIVAL SCHEDULE FOR 15 WEEKS OF THE YEAR (21 TOTAL ARRIVALS)

Note that this was a record breaking flight schedule at KSIA with all five extant FBSPOs flying on both Fridays and Sundays.
Tuesdays and Thursdays were the quietest with one arrival each.
There were no days with no FBSPO arrivals – just one of the benefits of having Emirates and its daily flight frequency on your flight programme.


TABLE 2.2: SAMPLE FBSPO DAILY ARRIVAL SCHEDULE FOR 10 WEEKS OF THE YEAR AT 18 TOTAL ARRIVALS PER WEEK (THE LOWEST RECORDED FOR THE YEAR)

Note that all four then extant FBSPOs flew only on Sundays.
There were no days on which no FBSPO flew.
Thursdays were the quietest day with one arrival.
Of the four FBSPOs at the close of the year, two flew doglegs (Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways using Johannesburg and Maputo in Mozambique respectively) and the other two direct routes (Emirates and Eswatini Air).


TABLE 3: FBSPO TOTAL ACTUAL ARRIVALS FREQUENCIES AT KSIA FOR 2025


TABLE 4: MULTIPLES OF ACTUAL WEEKLY ARRIVALS BY FBSPO AT KSIA FOR 2025


TABLE 5: FBSPO PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN BY AIRCRAFT TYPE FOR 2025

The use of no less than eight different aircraft types by the six FBSPOs during the year highlights the aircraft type variety that has always characterised KSIA FBSPO operations


TABLE 6: TOTAL FBSPO ACTUAL SCHEDULED ARRIVALS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE FOR 2025

The effect of both Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways operating the A350 throughout the year resulted in their combined total of 495 actual arrivals way exceeding those of the previously dominant airport record annual figure of 395 for Emirates.
This set a new airport record as it is the first time ever that any aircraft type has shown dominance over the B777 in this regard since the airport's opening in 2010.


AIR BOTSWANA

The second of two regional FBSPOs to have discontinued their services to KSIA in 2025, did so with the conclusion of the 93rd and final scheduled passenger arrival on October 5. This was completed by ATR 72-600 A2-ABL, which had also completed the airline's opening rotation to KSIA.
Air Botswana operated only two ATR 72-600s at this time.
This regional's conclusion was far from routine. After having flown what appeared to be the final flight on August 17, 2025, six weeks went by and then the last two flights on October 1 and 5. These final two flights were not charters, but completed under the previously usual flight number for the Durban route for Air Botswana.
The airline could certainly not be criticized for not having given the route sufficient time to mature.
The first significant activity for 2025 was the the arrival of the single Embraer E-170LR A2-ABM in place of the usual ATR 72-600 on April 23, 2025 and the first use of jet equipment on the Durban route to date for this operator and indeed, by any FBSPO. As it would be, it was also the last use of this type to KSIA by this operator.
With both aircraft having exactly the same passenger carrying capacity (70 seat all economy), this clearly was not a substitution arising out of altered route passenger capacities.
Interestingly, of the 92 rotations completed by the ATRs, only 12 (13%) were achieved by A2-ABK while a much higher utilisation of 80 rotations (87%) were undertaken by A2-ABL.
A total of 19 flight cancellations unfortunately sullied this carrier's Durban record in 2025 which, at its peak saw four successive no-shows.
2025 saw 82 total arrivals (7.7% of total FBSPO arrivals).


EMIRATES

Emirates became the first FBSPO at KSIA to achieve the milestone 5,000th actual scheduled passenger arrival on June 1, 2025 (corrects 20.02.2025), as recorded by A6-EGZ.
Emirates' B777 C-block aircraft registrations used to be amongst the most prolific at KSIA with as many as four out of seven weekly arrivals so represented. However, from the last few months of 2023 there was a very abrupt and long lasting dearth of C-block appearances with only three in the whole of 2024!
The first 2025 appearance came only in early March with a slight improvement in appearances every one or two months or so.
From August 2025 this frequency upped again to about three appearances monthly and peaked at seven in as many days during the last week of October. Clearly, the C-block was back at KSIA!
During this time A6-ECS proved to be registration flavour of the month with no less than four appearances over six successive days from October 29 to November 3. Evidently, ECS had developed an insatiable appetite for the Durban bunny chow.
One identified interesting registration combination was:
26.11.2025 A6-ECJ;
27.11. -EGC;
28.11. -EGA;
29.11. -EGC;
30.11. -ECJ;
A further interesting combination involved successive G-block B777s in ascending order:
02.11.2025 A6-EGA;;
03.11. -ECS;
04.11. -EGA;
05.11. -ECI;
06.11. -EGB;
07.11. -EGC;
08.11. -ECQ;
09.11. -EGC;
The majority of individual Emirates aircraft registrations at Durban reappear over time periods measured in days, weeks or months. However, the contender for oldest reappearing registration for 2025 must go to A6-EBR, which made its reappearance on December 26, 2025 after having last appeared at Durban on March 21, 2022 or three years and nine months before.
Another very unusual phenomenon was the exclusive use of just two specific airframes in the B777 B-block for an extended period measuring in years and at the express exclusion of all other extant B-block registrations. Below is the complete list of all 31 arrivals in chronological order:
02.10.2023 A6-EBU; 05.11.2023 A6-EBM; 09.11.2023 A6-EBK; 18.11.2023 A6-EBK;
27.11.2023 A6-EBM; 21.12.2023 A6-EBM; 25.12.2023 A6-EBK; 25.02.2024 A6-EBK;
15.04.2024 A6-EBM; 10.05.2024 A6-EBK; 25.06.2024 A6-EBM; 05.08.2024 A6-EBM;
21.08.2024 A6-EBK; 22.09.2024 A6-EBM; 28.09.2024 A6-EBK; 26.10.2024 A6-EBK;
27.10.2024 A6-EBK; 05.12.2024 A6-EBM; 01.01.2025 A6-EBK; 27.01.2025 A6-EBK;
11.02.2025 A6-EBK; 09.03.2025 A6-EBM; 19.03.2025 A6-EBK; 24.06.2025 A6-EBM;
10.07.2025 A6-EBM; 14.07.2025 A6-EBK; 23.07.2025 A6-EBM; 08.08.2025 A6-EBM;
11.08.2025 A6-EBK; 17.08.2025 A6-EBM; 18.10.2025 A6-EBM; 21.10.2025 A6-EBK;
11.11.2025 A6-EBU
Despite their still being a total of seven surviving B-block B777s in the Emirates passenger carrying inventory at the close of the year, only A6-EBK and A6-EBM featured during the almost two year period as above.
Also interesting is that, despite the seemingly random appearance of the two registrations in the above list, there were, in fact, 15 -EBM and 16 -EBK arrivals amongst the total arrivals, ie an apparently conscious attempt to use each aircraft equally during this period.
Given that these two aircraft are the oldest pair in the current Emirates fleet and most likely have the highest airframe hours of all extant passenger carrying Emirates B777s, could this use be an attempt to cosset the airframe hours by spreading them out in order to gain the most efficient utilisation of those remaining hours?
I speculate that these two aircraft will also be the first two in the fleet to be withdrawn from use when the much delayed B777X eventually makes its service appearance in Dubai.
Although undoubtedly co-incidence, it is also somewhat amusing that A6-EBU both initiated and ended the lengthly 'run' of the bias period! Now these things can't be planned....
Whoever said that the study of Emirates aircraft registrations isn't a fascinating activity?
As ever, the airline maintained its winning recipe of seven weekly arrivals and B777 equipment throughout the year without variation.
Without any flight cancellations, the airline's full potential of 365 actual arrivals (34.4% of total FBSPO arrivals) was met, putting Emirates comfortably ahead of its nearest rival, Qatar Airways.


TABLE 7: BREAKDOWN OF EMIRATES ACTUAL ARRIVALS BY REGISTRATION LETTER BLOCK FOR 2025

As last year, the G-block was the most prevalent in 2025 by a long margin with 40% of arrivals. The N-block was a clear second place with 25%. The C and P-blocks were approximately similar at 15% each.


ESWATINI AIR

2025 was this airline's third year of Durban operation for this recent start-up regional carrier. Although this carrier initially took some time to find its feet regarding its flight schedule, which saw much and regular revision, it finally settled on a two arrivals weekly rotation and has stuck to it like super glue ever since.
No doubt this forms a basic stable foundation on which further expansion can now occur.
A small scheduled carrier with big airline temperament – that is how one observer described Eswatini Air's Durban operation last year.
Indeed, this small national airline is quite unlike any that have ever served KSIA in the past.
Regional airlines serving Durban have traditionally suffered numerous flight cancellations throughout the year with unstable flight schedules. Not this one! During 2025 not a single flight was dropped to Durban making Eswatini Air the first ever regional FBSPO to have achieved this spectacular performance. This achievement is all the more spectacular given the newness and smallness of the airline. This mirrors the stellar performance of much larger international carriers with much larger aircraft fleets by contrast to Eswatini Air's humble two aircraft fleet and would appear to demonstrate an operational maturity way in excess of its youthfulness.
Even when the airline had a legitimate 'excuse' to drop a flight on August 3, 2025, the usual Embraer equipment was instead replaced, for its usual single Durban-bound rotation, by a Kenya-based chartered ERJ-145MP V5-CAV (c/n 145385) from Aircraft Leasing Services Limited.
This very stand-in made numerous substitutions on behalf of Eswatini Air during the course of the year, presumably when the usual Embraers were down for scheduled servicing or any unscheduled events.
All other flights were undertaken by the usual two Embraers, but with a significant bias towards use of the aircraft 3DC-EAB in preference to -EAA that deserves mention.
Between June 20 and December 21, of the pair of ERJs, exclusive use was made to Durban by -EAB. In fact, for the year, 77% of arrivals were completed by -EAB and only 15% being by -EAA. The balance of eight arrivals (8%) were all completed by V5-CAV.
The final result is that this tiny airline achieved its fullest possible quota of scheduled arrivals to Durban for 2025, based on its schedule of two arrivals weekly, of 104 actual arrivals (9.8% of total FBSPO arrivals) – a result that many far older and more experienced regional carriers can only dream of emulating.
That Eswatini Air continues to persist in an environment which has seen the demise of three other regionals since 2015, speaks plenty about the character of the airline and its management.
For passengers, the knowledge that their scheduled flight will always take place no matter what, can only raise passenger confidence and loyalty going forward and enhance the airline's growing reputation.


PROFLIGHT ZAMBIA

Proflight only made it into this report because of a single arrival – its last ever for the time being at least – which was recorded on January 3, 2025.
The longest serving regional carrier at KSIA had announced in 2024 that it was to permanently terminate its Durban operation due to fluctuating passenger demand. Ironically, whether by design or sheer coincidence, the carrier chose its latest passenger carrying acquisition for this very last flight, registration 9J-PFE, thereby ensuring that this CRJ200LR made both its first and last scheduled passenger Durban flight on the same day!
This left only two regionals in the Durban FBSPO mix, Air Botswana and Eswatini Air.


QATAR AIRWAYS

This carrier's greatest milestone achievement for 2025 was its 2,000th actual arrival. This was completed by A350-941 A7-ALJ on October 26.
Qatar Airways thus becomes only the second FBSPO at Durban, after Emirates, to ever have achieved this wonderful accolade.
Starting the year with five weekly arrivals, the airline has been the most energetic of all the FBSPOs in 2025 in experimenting with as many possible varieties of this frequency as possible, probably in an attempt to find the 'sweetest' variation which would then be sustained in the short term.
The following four varieties of the five arrivals weekly frequency were trialled by Qatar Airways at KSIA in 2025: They are displayed in chronological order.

(Table deleted)


For the record, besides the above, there were no less than six total variations in flight schedule or frequency during the course of the year.
As can be seen above, there were four variations of the five arrivals weekly frequency trialled, but the last appears to be the one settled on and was used through to the close of the year.
Note that arrivals on Wednesdays and Sundays were common in all variations and Tuesdays least so
The carrier announced earlier in the year that from June 3 it was to increase its arrivals frequency from the current five to seven. This would be the highest ever sustainable frequency flown to Durban by this operator, five being its previous record highest sustained figure.
This would also place Qatar Airways on equal par with Emirates for the first time as regards flight frequency to Durban.
The opening new arrival materialised on time but saw both the new days, Tuesdays and Thursdays, serviced not by the regular A350-941, but by the smaller capacity Boeing 787-8. This represented the fourth service period for the B787 to KSIA for Qatar Airways.
After only six non-consecutive B787 arrivals, the type was dropped in full transition to the A350 for all seven days of the week from July 1 onwards. This would seem to confirm that the needed minimum passenger capacity for the use of the larger A350 on these new days was already justified.
Although Emirates without doubt produces some of the most fascinating aircraft registration anomalies during the year, Qatar Airways also fields its share of noteworthy registration combinations, albeit less frequently. Among the more noteworthy this year were the three successive appearances by A350-941 A7-ALS on 4, 5 and 6 August, while the A350-900 also shared in the unusual combination of 13, 14, 15 and 16 September which were completed by successively A7-ALX, A7-ALX, A7-ALE and A7-ALE.
The use of the same registration on two successive rotations is quite a common practice by big fleet airlines like Emirates, Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways.
Qatar Airways flew its first Durban rotation of the year with the larger A350-1041 on October 29, 2025, as completed by A7-AOB making its maiden arrival on the Durban rotation. This was the first use of the -1041 since the last some 293 Qatar Airways actual arrivals previously on November 9, 2024. It was also the only use of this model to Durban by this airline during 2025.
This use of this larger type now was significant given that it preceded two successive days of non-arrivals following the flight schedule transition from seven back to five weekly arrivals again.
After 19 weeks of the seven arrivals weekly flight frequency, the carrier appears to have realised that it was pushing the frontiers too hard and its previous five arrivals weekly flight frequency was reinstated starting the week of October 27, 2025. This new frequency continued through to the end of the year.
The new selection of arrival days was also very different to what had ever gone before. Arrivals were now on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Saturdays and Sundays with neither Thursdays nor Fridays being serviced. This is an arrivals pattern never before flown by Qatar Airways on its Durban route.
It is interesting to note that, traditionally, Tuesdays and Thursdays have always offered the poorest average load factors on the Durban route for Qatar Airways, yet Tuesdays feature on the new schedule while Thursdays do not. Similarly, Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays have traditionally had relatively high average load factors, yet Friday does not feature in the new flight schedule.
It also means that Sundays were now the single busiest arrivals day at Durban, with all four extant FBSPOs featuring on this day.
With the increase in weekly arrivals from the long running four to five in 2024, that year produced an all-time Qatar Airways Durban record of 245 actual arrivals. Clearly, with the five arrivals a week schedule implemented from the outset of the year, an even greater record could be expected in 2025, even without the increase to seven weekly arrivals part way through the year.
Having suffered no flight cancellations to KSIA in 2025, its maximum possible potential of 301 actual arrivals (28.4% of total FBSPO arrivals) materialised.
This is the first time that Qatar Airways has ever gone beyond 300 actual arrivals in one calender year. Factually, in the six years since 2020, every year has seen only an increase in total arrivals by this operator In fact, there have now been three successive years of record arrivals by Qatar Airways at Durban.
The bar has now been set really high and it is unlikely that this latest figure will be easily beaten without a significantly lengthly switch to a seven arrivals weekly frequency, something not likely to happen in the short term.
Like Turkish Airlines, a second major aircraft type also made an appearance in the form of six arrivals by the Boeing 787-8 as flown randomly over the period June 3 to 26.
2025 also enabled the smashing of one of its own local records – that for the largest number of arrivals recorded by one aircraft type in a calender year. 295 arrivals were solely achieved by the A350 in 2025 compared to its previous record of 209 arrivals by the Boeing 787 in 2016.
The 295 A350 arrivals in 2025 now mean this type is the most representative type ever to Durban for Qatar Airways with 817 grand total arrivals to date since 2019, followed by the B787 with 662 total arrivals since 2015
It is yet another commonality that both Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines chose to employ the A350 as their dominant type during the year.
Clearly, the decision makers do not sit idle at this airline. Every aspect of commercial aviation is under constant scrutiny to, if necessary, bring about a more efficient solution and if necessary, change the existing pattern.


TURKISH AIRLINES

2025 was the first year post-COVID in which this carrier can be said to have fully returned to its pre-COVID flight schedule.
Unlike in 2024, in 2025 the operator sustained a four arrivals frequency from the outset and (almost) achieved its equivalent maximum arrivals total to date of 209, but for one arrival which only made it as far as the Johannesburg dogleg, for reasons unknown by this writer, on August 8.
Its 208 actual arrivals at KSIA constitutes 19.6% of total actual FBSPO arrivals in 2025.
This is at least the third occasion in its KSIA history that this airline has completed 208 rotations in one year.
Anyone who has observed both Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines will know just how closely their operations have mimicked each other over the years. Whether intentionally or by sheer coincidence, cannot be confirmed but the occurrence is ongoing and a cause of great interest by this writer.
Like Qatar Airways this year, Turkish Airlines also employed two aircraft types in order to complete its flight schedule, but over different time periods to each other. A sprinkling of eight Airbus A330-300 arrivals punctuated an otherwise exclusively A350-900 type year.
Dual aircraft rotation on the Durban route is nothing unfamiliar to this carrier. On September 7 the A330-300 was re-introduced on only the Sunday rotation with the balance of three days (Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays) still being served by the A350-941. Evidently, Sundays weren't quite delivering the required minimum passenger numbers routinely to justify use of the larger A350. This scenario prevailed until the last A330 arrival was made on October 19, 2025.
The dual aircraft type rotation had prevailed for seven successive weeks before a return to the A350. Then quite surprisingly, an eighth and final A330 arrival occurred on December 29.
Except for these A330-300 arrivals, the carrier has now flown the A350-941 continuously since August 14, 2024.
To date the A330 has been flown in every single year of Turkish Airlines operation to Durban from 2015, although the eight arrivals in 2025 are now the lowest ever recorded in one year.
Conversely, the 200 A350 arrivals are the highest ever by this type in one year on the Durban rotation and now take grand total A350 Durban arrivals to date to 356 since 2022. This makes this the second most representative aircraft type for Turkish Airlines on the KSIA route so far after the long-serving A330.
Regarding aircraft registration anomalies, this carrier had its fair share of two successive appearances by the same registration, but only one triple appearance the entire year. This was recorded by the A350-941 on successive rotations as such:
TC-LGB on 31.01.2025;
TC-LGB on 02.02.2025;
TC-LGM on 03.02.2025;
TC-LGM on 05.02.2025;
TC-LGM on 07.02.2025
Another combination saw two different A350-900s appear on the five successive rotations as such:
TC-LGN on May 16, 2025;
TC-LGN on May 18, 2025;
TC-LGB on May 19, 2025;
TC-LGB on May 21, 2025;
TC-LGN on May 23, 2025
A final noteworthy registration combination occurred with these A350-941s over four successive rotations:
TC-LGA on July 18, 2025;
TC-LGY on July 20, 2025;
TC-LGA on July 21, 2025;
TC-LGY on July 23, 2025;
These are about as exciting a registration combination as one is going to find anywhere among none Emirates airlines at KSIA....

ENDS